Memoir numbers may not wash

Alaska Dispatch | Nov 11, 2009

According to AOL's Daily Finance, the reported monetary sums involved in former Gov. Palin's book contract with HarperCollins mean that to break even on the deal, the publisher will have to sell 400,000 units. HarperCollins has said that the first printing run will comprise 1.5 million, but Daily Finance notes that the industry's print-run numbers are "notoriously inflated" and that 750,000 is likely a more accurate figure. Right now, pre-orders of Palin's book are rumored to have surpassed 40,000, with more added every day, but no one knows for certain. Only brief mention was made of the recent hardcover price-war between major retailers, which saw the cover price of Palin's book slashed to $9.The analysis ends with caution for HarperCollins, which seems to have a lot of its overall success in today's suffering hardcover market riding on Palin's book. Read more here. Alaska Dispatch should mention that the terms of HarperCollins' contract with Palin have not been made public, beyond a $1.25 million retainer (which Palin reported in required Alaska financial disclosures) as part of a rumored $7 million total advance (which Harper hasn't commented on), so take the analysis with a teeny grain of salt.

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Posted By: maa @ 11.12.2009 7:37 PM

Sarah Weinman's analysis in Daily Finance assumes HarperCollins gets $12.50 a copy on a $25 book. That's a 50-percent discount to booksellers (i.e., booksellers pay 50 percent of the cover price). That's what a big bookseller like Costco can demand if ordering in huge quantities, probably with a no-return sale. Smaller booksellers probably pay 55- 60 percent of the cover price. With some booksellers offering "Going Rogue" at $9, they're likely taking a loss.
A smaller bookstore would be smart to buy those cheap books and sell them at cost to keep customers in their stores. That means sales at the lower discount (55-60 v. 50 percent)will be lost. HarperCollins may sell a modest amount of 50-percent discount books and not many more 55-60 percent discount books. That could cut into HarperCollins' sales. Palin gets royalties based on X percent of the cover price of copies sold (copies shipped less returns), so the deep discount price won't hurt her royalties except in terms of numbers.
Don't steal the book; copies stolen count as copies sold, as Abbie Hoffman figured out.

Posted By: JimAK @ 11.12.2009 12:45 PM

Two days after the release date of Sarah Palin’s book was announced, it's already become the top seller at both Amazon.com and BarnesandNoble.com.

Palin’s publisher announced Monday that the former governor of Alaska and Republican vice presidential candidate had finished her memoir, "Going Rogue: An American Life," early and was moving the release date up from the spring to November 17.

A Palin source told POLITICO that she "is very grateful" for the strong early sales.

"This book has taken off like a rocket," the source said.

http://www.politico.com/news/stories/0909/27773.html

HarperCollins will print 1.5 million copies for the book’s first run, the same number that was printed for late Sen. Ted Kennedy’s memoir "True Compass."

Kennedy’s book, published earlier this month, currently stands at number six on the Amazon list.

A publishing industry source told POLITICO that they "cannot remember a non-fiction book taking off like this in the pre-order market. It became number one only a couple of hours after nothing more than a date announcement. It is truly unprecedented."